Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 82213.934042 86792.023051 91369.765113 96287.372730 101417.302407 106607.609493 112252.639550
2025-05-11 74238.106027 81208.655814 88375.317743 96284.212315 104757.175566 113551.852852 123360.263785
2025-05-18 68697.637320 77295.077101 86330.197215 96512.379040 107646.693832 119431.035924 132824.920580
2025-05-25 64313.049592 74103.439923 84583.346573 96601.741449 109968.147744 124342.046808 140932.119794
2025-06-01 61396.917920 72217.490811 83985.639189 97684.783632 113141.174027 129987.650216 149683.711570
2025-06-08 58076.246821 69629.429038 82379.955078 97427.596433 114629.294264 133607.635532 156054.945118
2025-06-15 56224.007680 68564.986005 82363.252476 98845.418326 117904.490089 139156.254136 164546.506085
2025-06-22 54211.764764 67184.829319 81869.048944 99609.703937 120345.101657 143695.056280 171852.726374
2025-06-29 52039.160762 65499.343223 80915.361920 99742.810055 121973.405461 147241.178172 177979.156039
2025-07-06 50022.598809 63900.361882 79973.926203 99806.875982 123450.495193 150560.300471 183809.972901
2025-07-13 49095.600658 63555.271124 80471.810314 101536.573966 126863.323373 156128.144610 192280.276511
2025-07-20 48102.600242 63075.094648 80762.005466 102980.203302 129912.055782 161261.365423 200254.240470
2025-07-27 46736.666527 62104.594700 80441.007821 103683.889384 132093.577401 165412.272075 207143.815737
2025-08-03 45073.122428 60705.301394 79546.039721 103645.618446 133349.014368 168446.518570 212710.621638
2025-08-10 43649.656944 59553.625315 78908.206246 103880.236626 134903.945046 171822.313463 218687.560887
2025-08-17 42246.629234 58375.638682 78190.719630 103973.443139 136251.791469 174927.519564 224333.471056
2025-08-24 41422.641982 57907.639977 78336.277408 105122.556864 138892.626746 179607.815901 231915.395919
2025-08-31 39996.813469 56609.387171 77385.680800 104849.530321 139729.061760 182056.210382 236758.209434
2025-09-07 39441.932850 56429.540314 77845.204797 106354.124616 142791.698625 187258.249832 245019.103594
2025-09-14 38615.941299 55860.677149 77778.362244 107165.090499 144967.283077 191361.392035 251936.937550
2025-09-21 37546.165428 54931.494690 77212.970553 107306.319059 146271.845902 194369.364386 257496.649889
2025-09-28 36497.389589 53997.746922 76611.869140 107374.293900 147462.432595 197224.171508 262867.610695
2025-10-05 36219.370278 54099.397719 77366.203865 109209.349518 150931.243305 202966.452862 271902.053049